How Netanyahu turned his polls around despite war, protests and international censure

Analysts speculated backlash from his handling of Oct 7 but Israeli PM’s party set to majority if election held today

Benjamin Netanyahu is leading in the polls as Israel’s favoured prime minister, in a turnaround that many thought impossible after he presided over the worst tragedy in the nation’s history on Oct 7.
Mr Netanyahu has earned his reputation as a comeback specialist, winning elections five times despite often appearing on the verge of political oblivion.
Analysts speculated that he would try and wait out the backlash to his handling of the Hamas massacre that killed 1,200 Israelis, believing that, with time, his prosecution of the war itself could win back support.
Polls now show the gambit may be paying off.
In August, a poll conducted by Maariv gave Mr Netanyahu’s Likud party 22 seats, again becoming the largest party in Israel’s Knesset, with National Unity, the party led by his main rival Benny Gantz, dropping to 20 seats.
48 per cent of voters said they wanted Mr Netanyahu as prime minister, compared to 42 per cent for Mr Gantz. For months, he and his party had been languishing behind their rivals.
It is a quietly extraordinary shift, as Mr Netanyahu’s tenure since Oct 7 has been marked by protests from the families of hostages seized by Hamas, censure from Israel’s key allies, rioters storming IDF bases and criticism from his own top brass.
Pinhas Amar, a 67-year-old from the central city of Hadera, told The Telegraph that he supports Mr Netanyahu for “resistance to pressure” from the US and the “emotional blackmailing” on the hostage issue inside Israel, where families accuse Mr Netanyahu of not doing enough to return their loved ones.
“I see Netanyahu as running a marathon,” said Mr Amar.
Shulamit Perez from the city of Or Akiva is also a strong supporter of the prime minister. 
She told The Telegraph: “Without him, the country would have been in a worse shape.”
Mrs Perez, like many of Mr Netanyahu’s supporters, believes he is the “smartest” and most “responsible” politician in Israel.
“The Left-wing has been trying to destroy him for years. October 7 is the best example. I don’t believe he was warned properly by the IDF and Shin Bet about the threat from Hamas,” she said.
Aviv Bushinsky, Mr Netanyahu’s former adviser and chief of staff, said that the prime minister’s constant messaging on the need to totally eliminate Hamas was resonating with Israelis even 10 months into the war.
He said: “Israelis want to see leadership and strength. And Netanyahu has shown both.”
Some Israelis agree with his perspective that Israel needs to destroy Hamas even if it ends up costing the lives of some hostages, according to Mr Bushinsky.
“Netanyahu is consistent in his message about Hamas, unlike his opponents,” he said, adding that his resistance against pressure from the entire world, including the US, is something he’s being rewarded for.
It is a tried-and-tested strategy for Mr Netanyahu to position himself as “standing up” against both Israel’s enemies and allies on national security. 
While his opponents have criticised him for jeopardising Israel’s relationship with the US, especially during the Obama years, his voter base rewarded him for it.
Perhaps most importantly, Mr Gantz, Mr Netanyahu’s main opponent, left the government without giving a “precise and clear” reason for his decision, which was the moment he started losing support in polls, Mr Bushinsky said.
Miki Zohar, the culture minister and one of Mr Netanyahu’s closest confidants, told The Telegraph that he believes many Israelis are starting to “realise” that his long-term strategy vis-a-vis Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas, is “smart.”
Nadav Shtrauchler, a political strategist who worked closely with Mr Netanyahu, highlighted his patience and consistency in his messages: “You hear him say ‘total victory’ for months, and he is the only one who has a clear narrative, unlike his opponents.”
Mr Shtrauchler said the prime minister has now entered the “second chapter” of his post-Oct-7 political survival, which will end in late October or early November, where two things will happen; the Knesset comes back from recess and the US election will take place.
This period, where it will be harder for the coalition to topple him, gives Mr Netanyahu an “opportunity” to try and get the best ceasefire deal possible and do “big things” on the northern border, Mr Shtrauchler said.
“He will try to make at least one big move in this period, either war in the north or a ceasefire with Hamas.”
While Mr Shtrauchler attributes Mr Netanyahu’s success to patience, hard-hitting messages on security and weak opponents, he will “never go back” to having as many as 32 seats in the Knesset. 
Mr Shtrauchler said Israelis should prepare for elections in 2025, as the coalition is facing too many challenges to survive, including drafting ultra-orthodox youth into the army – an issue that has toppled Mr Netanyahu’s government in the past.
Despite the 74-year-old prime minister slowly winning back some of his support, his opponents are more angry with him than ever. Families of hostages in Gaza have demonstrated against Mr Netanyahu for months, holding him directly responsible for failing to bring back the remaining hostages.
Sharone Lifschitz, daughter of 83-year-old Oded Lifschitz who is still held captive in Gaza, said the hostages are dying in captivity “because of Netanyahu’s actions”.
Mrs Lifschitz told The Telegraph that the hostages could have been released by now but Mr Netanyahu is “delaying” the ceasefire deal.
“It’s devastating to have your loved ones kept hostage when the person who is supposed to have looked after their safety failed so miserably and he is now using them as human shields for his political gain,” she said.
Mr Netanyahu has managed to survive the biggest catastrophe in Israel’s history by doing what he does best, namely stall for time and play the political game to his own advantage. 
But failing to bring back the hostages would, to many voters, be unforgivable.